Weekly Update for Northeast Santa Rosa

Santa Rosa Real-Time Market Profile 181015

Mon Oct 15 2018 
This week the median list price for Santa Rosa, CA 95404 is $749,250 with the market action index hovering around 32. (Below 30, conditions favor the buyer.) This is less than last month's market action index of 33. Inventory has held steady at or around 120. 

Slight Seller's Advantage
In the last few weeks, the market has been at a stasis point in terms of sales to inventory. However, prices seem to continue to fall a bit. Technically supply levels indicate this is a Seller’s market so it is likely that the downward pricing pressure will be light or variable. Watch for an up-shift in the MAI (Market Action Index) before price stability is achieved.


SONOMA COUNTY MARKET OVERVIEW

From Pacific Union International Chief Economist Selma Hepp – Jan. 15, 2018

With October's wildfires in the rearview mirror and rebuilding underway, fourth-quarter housing market activity in Sonoma County did not follow its usual year-end trends. Home sales activity in November and December was notably higher than is seasonally typical, leading overall fourth-quarter activity to increase by 5 percent on an annual basis. All told, 2017 home sales were only slightly higher than the previous year's activity.

  Defining Sonoma County: Sales data in the charts includes all single-family homes and farms and ranches in Sonoma County.

Defining Sonoma County: Sales data in the charts includes all single-family homes and farms and ranches in Sonoma County.

Some constraints resulted from fewer homes on the market, which was the case through most of 2017 and mostly due to the rapidly declining inventory of affordable homes. The supply of homes priced at more than $1 million fared the best, increasing by about 14 percent in the fourth quarter compared with the same period last year. With much of the fire-impacted areas in neighborhoods with higher-priced homes, such inventory will see further constraints over the next year. Also, October's wildfires resulted in newly listed lots, which jumped by three times in December year over year.

Demand for affordable homes, especially among families displaced by wildfires, led to a strong increase in median prices in the fourth quarter, with the highest gain for homes priced less than $1 million.  

Looking Forward: Rebuilding efforts and families making decisions about their future location will characterize the region's real estate trends in the coming year. However, Sonoma County's relative affordability will remain a favorable factor that will continue to attract Bay Area buyers and hopefully allow existing households to find a new home. Demand and limited inventory should drive prices by double-digit percentage points.

Wildfires Devastated Region - Four Months Later

 Press Democrat

Press Democrat

The Rebuilding Begins

It's been four months since our area was devastated by wildfire. Almost everyone that needed temporary shelter has found it and the hard questions surrounding rebuilding have begun. 

This is not a typical "let's build our dream house" story. There's hazardous clean-up, soils and water testing, and erosion concern, all playing a role in coloring what is already a stressful experience (and one that none of us had asked for). Decisions are being made...sell the lot and move out of town, sell the lot and find an existing home (prices reflect the supply and demand dilemma here) or keep the lot and soldier on through the re-build process, hoping that we won't go too far out of pocket. Each decision is a personal one and driven by a number of factors. It will be interesting to see how Santa Rosa looks in another 5-10 years when construction dust has settled and we're all back on track.

Here's a good article that was written by a friend of a friend :) Linkedin-What I Learned When My House Burned Down

Weekly Update for Santa Rosa's Fountaingrove/Montecito Heights

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Santa Rosa, CA 95404

Wed Sep 13 2017
This week the median list price for Santa Rosa, CA 95404 is $899,000 with the market action index hovering around 39. This is about the same as last month's market action index of 39. Inventory has held steady at or around 95. Click here to stay informed with the Santa Rosa market!

Slight Seller's Advantage

The market remains in a relative stasis in terms of sales to inventory. Prices have not been moving higher for several weeks. However, inventory is sufficiently low to keep us in the Seller’s Market zone so watch changes in the MAI. If the market heats up persistently, prices are likely to resume an upward climb.

More Than Half of Californians Are Worried About a Housing Bubble

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AMERICANS INCREASINGLY BELIEVE A HOUSING BUBBLE IS LOOMING
A substantial number of Americans and Californians believe that housing markets are overvalued and due for a correction, although a recent study says that the chances of that happening are slim.

ValueInsured’s latest Modern Homebuyer Survey found that 57 percent of U.S. homeowners believe that home prices in their area are too high and that appreciation rates are not sustainable, up 7 percent from the first quarter. Eight in 10 millennials think that homes are overvalued, a quarter-over-quarter gain of 12 percent.

Fifty-eight percent of respondents think that there will be a housing bubble and a price correction within the next two years. California is one of the five states where homeowners are most worried about a housing bubble, with 59 percent of those surveyed citing it as a chief concern.

Even if homeowners are nervous about a sharp housing decline like the one that began a decade ago, research from JPMorgan says that sustained home price growth has historically been the norm, while corrections are uncommon. The financial services company estimates that there is a 10 percent likelihood of home prices declining by 20 percent over the next five years.

(for the complete story)

Weekly Update for Santa Rosa's Fountaingrove/Montecito Heights

Santa Rosa, CA 95404

Mon Aug 14 2017
This week the median list price for Santa Rosa, CA 95404 is $855,000 with the market action index hovering around 40. This is an increase over last month's market action index of 39. Inventory has held steady at or around 100. Click here to stay informed with the Santa Rosa market!

Slight Seller's Advantage

The market remains in a relative stasis in terms of sales to inventory. Prices have not been moving higher for several weeks. However, inventory is sufficiently low to keep us in the Seller’s Market zone so watch changes in the MAI. If the market heats up persistently, prices are likely to resume an upward climb.

Weekly Update for Santa Rosa's Fountaingrove/Montecito Heights

Santa Rosa, CA 95404

Wed Jul 12 2017
This week the median list price for Santa Rosa, CA 95404 is $934,500 with the market action index hovering around 40. This is an increase over last month's market action index of 30. Inventory has held steady at or around 92. Click here to stay informed with the Santa Rosa market!

Slight Seller's Advantage

Home sales continue to outstrip supply and the Market Action Index has been moving higher for several weeks. This is a Seller’s market so watch for upward pricing pressure in the near future if the trend continues.

Weekly Update for Santa Rosa's Fountaingrove/Montecito Heights

Santa Rosa, CA 95404

Wed May 17 2017
This week the median list price for Santa Rosa, CA 95404 is $849,999 with the market action index hovering around 37. This is an increase over last month's market action index of 36. Inventory has increased to 104. Stay informed with the Santa Rosa market!

Slight Seller's Advantage

The market has been cooling over time and prices have recently flattened. Despite the consistent decrease in Market Action Index (MAI), we’re in a Seller’s Market (where significant demand leaves little inventory available). If the MAI begins to climb, prices will likely follow suit. If the MAI drops consistently or falls into the Buyer’s zone, watch for downward pressure on prices.

Weekly Update for Santa Rosa's Fountaingrove/Montecito Heights

Santa Rosa, CA 95404

Thu May 04 2017

This week the median list price for Santa Rosa, CA 95404 is $899,000 with the market action index hovering around 36. This is less than last month's market action index of 37. Inventory has increased to 91. Stay informed with the Santa Rosa market!

Slight Seller's Advantage

The market has been cooling over time and prices have recently flattened. Despite the consistent decrease in Market Action Index (MAI), we’re in a Seller’s Market (where significant demand leaves little inventory available). If the MAI begins to climb, prices will likely follow suit. If the MAI drops consistently or falls into the Buyer’s zone, watch for downward pressure on prices.

Weekly Update for Santa Rosa's Fountaingrove/Montecito Heights

Santa Rosa, CA 95404

Wed Apr 12 2017

This week the median list price for Santa Rosa, CA 95404 is $907,000 with the market action index hovering around 37. This is about the same as last month's market action index of 37. Inventory has increased to 82. Stay informed with the Santa Rosa market!

Slight Seller's Advantage

The market has been cooling over time and prices have recently flattened. Despite the consistent decrease in Market Action Index (MAI), we’re in a Seller’s Market (where significant demand leaves little inventory available). If the MAI begins to climb, prices will likely follow suit. If the MAI drops consistently or falls into the Buyer’s zone, watch for downward pressure on prices.

Weekly Update for Santa Rosa's Fountaingrove/Montecito Heights

Santa Rosa, CA 95404

Wed Mar 22 2017
This week the median list price for undefined is $879,000 with the market action index hovering around 37. This is about the same as last month's market action index of 37. Inventory has increased to 79. 

Slight Seller's Advantage
The market has been cooling off a bit in recent weeks, as more homes are available and demand is less. We’re already seeing prices move lower as a result. Expect this trend to continue especially if the index falls to the Buyer’s zone. Watch for a persistent up-turn in Market Action to signal prices rising again.

Weekly Update for Santa Rosa's Fountaingrove/Montecito Heights

Santa Rosa, CA 95404

Wed Mar 15 2017
This week the median list price for Santa Rosa, CA 95404 is $824,000 with the market action index hovering around 38. This is less than last month's market action index of 39. Inventory has increased to 74.

Slight Seller's Advantage

In the last few weeks, the market has been at a stasis point in terms of sales to inventory. However, prices seem to continue to fall a bit. Technically supply levels indicate this is a Seller's market so it is likely that the downward pricing pressure will be light or variable. Watch for an up-shift in the MAI before price stability is achieved.

Weekly Update for Santa Rosa's Fountaingrove/Montecito Heights

Santa Rosa, CA 95404

Mon Mar 06 2017
This week the median list price for Santa Rosa, CA 95404 is $749,900 with the market action index hovering around 37. This is less than last month's market action index of 39. Inventory has increased to 71. 

Slight Seller's Advantage

The market has been cooling off consistently for several weeks, as more homes are available and demand is less. We have begun to seen prices move lower as a result. If the MAI falls into the Buyer's zone, it is likely that prices continue their downward trend until we see some turnaround in Market Action.

Weekly Update for Santa Rosa's Fountaingrove/Montecito Heights

Weekly Summary

This week the median list price for Santa Rosa, CA 95404 is $825,000 with the market action index hovering around 39. This is less than last month's market action index of 41. Inventory has increased to 61. 

Slight Seller's Advantage

In the last few weeks the market has achieved a relative stasis point in terms of sales to inventory. However, inventory is sufficiently low to keep us in the Seller's Market zone so watch changes in the MAI. If the market heats up, prices are likely to resume an upward climb.

Out Migration: It’s A Housing Story

California has an out-migration problem. Recently released figures from the State’s Department of Finance (DOF) shows that the number of Californians leaving the state each year is on the rise. After falling significantly during the Great Recession, outmigration from California is on a 4- year uptrend. The DOF reports that nearly 118,000 people moved to other states in 2016, and more than half a million people have left California since 2010. Much can be said about our high taxes, hostility towards business, and strict regulatory environment in the Golden State, but our out-migration problem is really a symptom of a much deeper problem: the lack of housing affordability in the state.

In short, for many working-age, working-class people who want to own their own homes leaving California is the only option. California’s migration problem is really a housing problem.